HVAC Market Growth Accelerates: Heat Pumps and Data Center Cooling Take the Lead

Recent market research on the HVAC sector points to strong growth prospects across several areas, ranging from European HVAC systems and the global heat pump market to data center cooling. Three separate studies published by MarketsandMarkets in August and September 2026 indicate that energy efficiency, electrification, building decarbonization and the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure could significantly increase demand for HVAC technologies in the coming years.

In particular, the projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 16.1% for data center cooling and 13.7% for the heat pump market indicate that the transformation of the HVAC sector is extending well beyond traditional heating and air-conditioning applications.

European HVAC Market Could Reach $48.1 Billion by 2030

According to MarketsandMarkets’ September 2026 European HVAC Systems Market report, the European HVAC systems market is expected to grow from $36.4 billion in 2025 to $48.1 billion by 2030. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 5.8% between 2025 and 2030.

The research covers a broad range of HVAC products, including air-conditioning systems, VRF systems, chillers, cooling towers and coolers, as well as heat pumps, boilers, air handling units (AHUs), air filters, humidifiers and air purification technologies.

The market is also assessed in terms of smart and sustainable HVAC technologies. Improving energy efficiency and the transition toward low-carbon building technologies are identified as key factors shaping the direction of HVAC investment in Europe over the coming years.

Global Heat Pump Market Could Exceed $169 Billion

Heat pumps are expected to remain one of the fastest-growing segments of the HVAC sector.

According to MarketsandMarkets’ August 2026 research, the global heat pump market is projected to grow from $88.81 billion in 2026 to $169.04 billion by 2031.

This means that the market could almost double in size in just five years. The projected compound annual growth rate for the 2026–2031 period is 13.7%.

According to the research, growth is being driven by the increasing adoption of energy-efficient heating and cooling solutions, efforts to decarbonize buildings, and government support for low-carbon heating technologies.

The market research covers air-to-air, air-to-water, water-source, geothermal, hybrid and PVT heat pump technologies, while also evaluating different refrigerants including R410A, R407C, R744 (CO₂), R290 (propane) and R717 (ammonia).

The transition toward low-GWP refrigerants and the replacement of fossil fuel-based heating systems with high-efficiency electric alternatives are also among the key trends supporting the development of the heat pump market.

Data Center Cooling Is One of the Fastest-Growing HVAC Segments

Among the three studies, the highest growth forecast is seen in the data center cooling market.

According to research published by MarketsandMarkets in August 2026, the global data center cooling market is expected to be valued at $13.23 billion in 2026. The market is projected to reach $37.62 billion by 2033.

This means that the data center cooling market is expected to grow by approximately 2.8 times over seven years, representing a compound annual growth rate of 16.1% between 2026 and 2033.

One of the key factors behind this growth is the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure.

As cloud computing, big data analytics and artificial intelligence applications become more widespread, both the number of data centers and their computing density are increasing. As a result, removing the heat generated by high-density servers in a reliable and energy-efficient manner is becoming increasingly critical.

This shift is also increasing interest in liquid cooling technologies such as direct-to-chip and immersion cooling, alongside conventional air-cooled systems.

Three Different Dimensions of HVAC Market Growth

When the three market studies are considered together, it becomes clear that the HVAC sector’s growth in the coming years will not depend on a single technology or application area.

While the European HVAC systems market is expected to experience more stable and broad-based growth, electrification and decarbonization policies are supporting a significantly higher growth rate in the heat pump segment. Data center cooling, meanwhile, is becoming one of the fastest-growing specialist areas within the HVAC sector, driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence, cloud computing and high-density computing infrastructure.

The data also indicate that the direction of the market is changing for HVAC manufacturers. Alongside energy efficiency, low-GWP refrigerants, smart control systems, high-efficiency heat pumps and advanced data center cooling technologies are emerging as areas where competition could intensify in the coming years.

New Growth Areas Are Emerging in the HVAC Sector

MarketsandMarkets’ latest forecasts indicate that the HVAC sector is becoming an increasingly important part of both the energy transition and digital infrastructure, extending well beyond conventional building climate control.

The European HVAC market is expected to reach $48.1 billion by 2030, while the global heat pump market is projected to rise to $169.04 billion by 2031 and the data center cooling market to $37.62 billion by 2033.

In particular, double-digit growth forecasts for heat pumps and data center cooling indicate that electrification, AI infrastructure, energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies will play an increasingly decisive role in shaping the next phase of growth in the global HVAC sector.